Higher education is currently experiencing contrasting trends. First, academic performance prior to university entry is declining: the PISA 2022 results highlight a ‘decade-long decline’ across all assessed subjects (science, language and mathematics), which has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic (OECD, 2023). Second, the democratisation of university access has led to an increasingly diverse student body. While these trends suggest a decline in the academic calibre of incoming students, the opposite appears to be true.

Numerous studies around the globe highlight grade inflation – an upward shift in grades not matched by improvements in student performance (see for example Griffith & Sovero, 2021) – or increased grading leniency. This raises concerns as it diminishes the signalling value of grades, making it harder for employers to assess candidates’ abilities.

A decade of grade inflation in favour of low-performing students

We examine grade inflation at a leading European university with an open admission policy; that is, where students applying for a bachelor’s programme with a national diploma of secondary education or equivalent will be enrolled and funded. We use a unique individual-level dataset of 28,520 economics and business students observed between 2012 and 2022. We observe every grade result by student and course as well as individual covariates such as gender, followed programme, elective during high schools, and so on. We use fixed-effects models to identify grade inflation and isolate the impact of Covid-related leniency. Results show an average yearly grade increase of 0.075 points (on a 20-point scale) and a sharper 0.5-point increase (on a 20-point scale) during the pandemic.

Still, students entering university 10 years ago might have possessed stronger cognitive abilities than those entering today. We controlled for such changes in the student population via a matching model. Dividing the 2012 cohort into ‘high-‘ and ‘low-‘ performing students according to two proxies for academic performance (either using their probability of retake exams or student’s Grade Point Average), we matched them with later cohorts and re-estimated grade inflation. This approach allowed us to identify results specific to low- and high-performing individuals while artificially holding the student cognitive abilities constant from 2012 to 2021, thereby isolating the effect of increased leniency in grading. Results show significant grade increases (0.085 to 0.16 points) for low achievers, while higher ones experienced no significant change.

Cognitive bias at the root of the leniency

Although we cannot formally test hypotheses underlying grade inflation among low-performing students, a review of the literature emphasises the existence of instructors’ cognitive bias. As shown in earlier educational stages (Ferman & Fontes, 2021), it is likely that instructors seek to maintain a consistent passing rate over time, even as the performance level of marginal students declines.

‘Although we cannot formally test hypotheses underlying grade inflation among low-performing students, a review of the literature emphasises the existence of instructors’ cognitive bias.’

Calls for action

Given its negative consequences, grade inflation demands urgent policy action. Staff awareness must be raised following the literature on cognitive bias. As inflation may differ across departments or faculties, standardised grading practices beyond course or individual levels should be considered. Independent internal and external committees should monitor practices and uphold academic standards. Above all, prioritising student competence over pass rates must become a core objective for all stakeholders. This represents a necessary and courageous step towards preserving academic integrity, even at the cost of lower immediate success rates.

This blog post is based on the article ‘A decade of grade inflation boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis of a top European university’ by Maxime François and Kristof De Witte, published in the British Educational Research Journal.

References

Ferman, B., & Fontes, L. F. (2021). Assessing knowledge or classroom behavior? Evidence of teachers’ grading bias. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3797725

François, M., & De Witte, K. (2025). A decade of grade inflation boosted by the COVID-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis of a top European university. British Educational Research Journal. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1002/berj.4172

Griffith, A. L., & Sovero, V. (2021). Under pressure: How faculty gender and contract uncertainty impact students’ grades. Economics of Education Review, 83, 102126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2021.102126

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD]. (2023). PISA 2022 results (volume I): The state of learning and equity in education. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/pisa-2022-results-volume-i_53f23881-en.html